Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a0b26dd4a5ab1ed72dc91b146a3d58f99e891e9dd7d04cb19733a85274737bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 46c | 2,894$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.83 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 1,735$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 46c | 336.25$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.04 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 56c | 213.78$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 153$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 72c | 141.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 128.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked Yes | 17c | 117.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 27c | 109.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 61c | 66.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 63.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e59…ac60backed Yes | 53c | 46.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 43c | 45.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 41.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…45c3backed Yes | 49c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 38.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea91…b31dbacked No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7452…8382backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 46c | 22.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 66c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.