Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4897a8dd77acbf5fac3e4d61f7afd41e93fecebe56a5500f823da3141ea81f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 0c | 5,262$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 1,324$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.68 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 2c | 746.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 510$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 41c | 265.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 237.16$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 219$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 59c | 193$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 50c | 181.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 165.88$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 154$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed No | 66c | 151.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 143$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 121$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 49c | 118.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 78c | 99.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 19c | 90.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 83.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 69c | 78.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 77.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 66.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 67c | 59.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 67c | 59.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…fdf1backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 58c | 45.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 43c | 39.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 29c | 38.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 68c | 29.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 66c | 29.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 53c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 70c | 24.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 46c | 23.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 22.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x45ca…729abacked No | 62c | 16.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.