Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e1c74d3aa2ae76542743d4c491d950984d5025531662d77dbb2983c02812843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 73c | 3,808$2,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.06 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 75c | 2,035$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.31 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 46c | 1,322$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.16 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed No | 76c | 823.23$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.28 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 26c | 428.05$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 409.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 62c | 367.92$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.59 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 16c | 297.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 237.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 43c | 228.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.67 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 27c | 211.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 75c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 28c | 189$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 165.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 26c | 154.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 28c | 132.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 131.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 114.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…752ebacked No | 35c | 110.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked Yes | 74c | 109.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 20c | 88.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 17c | 79.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 26c | 76.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed Yes | 74c | 66.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 66.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 63.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 45c | 62.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 20c | 55.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 52c | 54.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 24c | 54.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed No | 24c | 51.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed No | 30c | 51.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…b830backed Yes | 73c | 49.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 38c | 46.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 44c | 45.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed No | 26c | 44.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 66c | 42.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 26c | 39.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 39.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 66c | 36.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Yes | 76c | 34.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eea…71a7backed Yes | 80c | 31.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 40c | 31.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4a…81ebbacked Yes | 72c | 25.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 80c | 24.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 76c | 22.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed Yes | 71c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65e2…7c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebcf…f919backed Yes | 80c | 12.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.