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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,417
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,417 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x229c…b966backed No11c418.65$47 inLost-$46.971,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes26c207$53 inWon+$153.8812732.3%41 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes31c157$49 inWon+$108.3316347.9%78 W · 85 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d7e…7278backed No65c151.1$98 inLost-$98.241060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fad…1a08backed No76c131.91$100 inLost-$1007957%45 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c130.68$41 inWon+$89.399,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No51c124.81$64 inLost-$64.1161521.1%130 W · 485 L-27.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No35c100$35 inLost-$3522116.7%37 W · 184 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No49c89.74$44 inLost-$43.631,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes27c88.56$24 inWon+$64.653,06433.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L+13.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No19c84.03$16 inLost-$16.286,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No61c79.84$48 inLost-$48.45,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes74c78$57 inWon+$20.61,33034.1%453 W · 877 L+45.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No71c73.77$52 inLost-$52.291,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No69c70.83$49 inLost-$48.874,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.91$21 inLost-$20.981,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes42c69.66$29 inWon+$40.420851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes45c62.53$28 inWon+$34.395,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No51c58.71$30 inLost-$29.821,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c51.86$13 inWon+$39.0210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes34c47.61$16 inWon+$31.523,42631.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L-38.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c38.71$20 inLost-$19.6512,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes28c38.37$11 inWon+$27.6319336.3%70 W · 123 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes75c33.25$25 inWon+$8.256365.1%41 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No63c30.12$19 inLost-$19.0945566.2%301 W · 154 L+20.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9cf…b443backed Yes51c29.68$15 inWon+$14.687731.2%24 W · 53 L-8.3wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No38c29.49$11 inLost-$11.2492145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes63c27.45$17 inWon+$10.192,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c27$20 inLost-$19.985,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes39c27$10 inWon+$16.591,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed No75c25.98$19 inLost-$19.3718939.7%75 W · 114 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa23b…b787backed Yes53c25.26$13 inWon+$11.8710648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No70c24.01$17 inLost-$16.8713351.9%69 W · 64 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x880a…308ebacked No55c22.34$12 inLost-$12.382445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No70c21$15 inLost-$14.72,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes66c16.33$11 inWon+$5.5323066.5%153 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed No69c15$10 inLost-$10.3513942.4%59 W · 80 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.