Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a4ad36b50fddd3c560459577825ea31cd9bdfd44c9e5d95613323fdcb06cecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 23c | 3,020$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 80c | 2,344$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.95 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 21c | 1,434$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.24 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 638.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 22c | 524.1$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 17c | 433.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 347.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 79c | 343.89$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…dbbfbacked No | 6c | 309.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 253.09$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 75c | 247.83$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 228.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 17c | 183.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 70c | 142.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 71c | 142.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 70c | 140.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 76c | 135.42$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 76c | 128.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 127.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 64c | 124.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 19c | 124.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 34c | 122.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 47c | 115.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 113.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 111.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 62c | 110.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 48c | 108.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked Yes | 76c | 102.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 98.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 54c | 96.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 93.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 32c | 86.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 56c | 85.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…0cecbacked No | 28c | 84.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9d72backed No | 18c | 83.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 82.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 45c | 81.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 51c | 80.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 77.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 49c | 76.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 50c | 76.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed No | 71c | 75.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fc…e1c5backed Yes | 69c | 73.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed No | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dc…338abacked Yes | 80c | 69.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 55c | 66.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 30c | 66.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 70c | 66.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 64.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 23c | 61.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 34c | 60.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 49c | 58.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed Yes | 43c | 55.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 56c | 53.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 49c | 49.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…a3d8backed Yes | 70c | 49.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…e50ebacked Yes | 77c | 47.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 43.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 41.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked Yes | 71c | 38.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 67c | 36.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 42c | 33.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 78c | 31.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…94f6backed Yes | 76c | 31.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 30.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 65c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 27.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…86b4backed Yes | 46c | 24.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 51c | 23.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 70c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 70c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…afecbacked No | 67c | 17.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 64c | 16.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 16.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 70c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.