Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x220db903e9259fac221ec96e1b7e2b6c7a0e3d7eb62682f03873e61aff22c1b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,452$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 16c | 496.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 496.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 32c | 417.13$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 286.87$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 79c | 263.55$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 254.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 80c | 244.8$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 231.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 223.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 21c | 221.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 200.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 35c | 179.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 167.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 20c | 165.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 25c | 164.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…ed07backed Yes | 29c | 156.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 10c | 152.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 76c | 128.57$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 115.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 39c | 115.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 24c | 104.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 27c | 99.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 98.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 94.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 25c | 85.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 38c | 84.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 78.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 37c | 76.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 68c | 70.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked Yes | 20c | 64.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 63.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 59.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 56.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 24c | 55.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 51.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 20c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 29c | 50.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 28c | 49.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…07dcbacked Yes | 42c | 44.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 65c | 43.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 42.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 78c | 38.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 64c | 37.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 29c | 37.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 71c | 34.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 33.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 70c | 31.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…9757backed No | 70c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 26.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 66c | 25.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 66c | 25.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 80c | 25.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c5…d5d3backed No | 79c | 24.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…86b4backed Yes | 44c | 23.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2746…5f00backed No | 79c | 23.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 65c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 70c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 69c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 76c | 18.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 63c | 16.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 66c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 78c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.