Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a67a13a8041c146d41424c72808e2ef16f1a31efda251a8c3dc83515cc940d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 44c | 846.48$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.01 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 8c | 710.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 9c | 641.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 454.7$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed No | 9c | 401.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 211.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 180.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 61c | 180.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 16c | 121.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 26c | 116$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 14c | 103.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 57c | 87.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 57c | 86.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 56c | 71.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 42c | 67.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5307…d0ecbacked No | 29c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…f2acbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce51…8d4cbacked Yes | 38c | 47.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 45.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 48c | 43.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed Yes | 80c | 43.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 48c | 41.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 39.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 52c | 34.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 72c | 30.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 53c | 29.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 54c | 22.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…40bdbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…622dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 79c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 30?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.