Serie A · resolved market
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a7b3b8d81dcd4b9dd8e4fef9aaaa1f7234fb4026e225e0381a9394c86e7555c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,494 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 61c | 1,580$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 26c | 1,250$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.77 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 961.11$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.77 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 717.04$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.38 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…f954backed Over | 41c | 329.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 29c | 311$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 241.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 39c | 237.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 27c | 233$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 26c | 211.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…c739backed Under | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 38c | 161.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 53c | 147.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 27c | 65.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 53.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 27c | 43.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed Under | 62c | 17.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.