Serie A · resolved market
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e59bf0dce2e90e97eca0ecf86b9d2131ac40e14b266cafaaa4eb1988e1db84b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,871 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 3,265$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.5 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 67c | 1,380$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.93 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 9c | 934.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.08 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 50c | 850$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 788.92$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.69 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 25c | 350.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.75 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 282.47$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 4c | 279.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 75c | 266.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 45c | 244.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 213.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 26c | 213.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.88 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 26c | 203$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 25c | 158.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 17c | 103$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 33c | 97.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…6e5dbacked Over | 45c | 84.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 73c | 72.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9c…c6debacked Over | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed Under | 34c | 44.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 59c | 38.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 70c | 24.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.