Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ab4a772799f231c5a2d8bad87aa6d58a516e67b2855ed1ebc202192ecaab086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 387.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 22c | 342.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 43c | 326.06$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.09 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 67c | 243.43$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 239.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 63c | 164.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 43c | 144.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 54c | 133.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 70c | 123.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 121.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 54c | 115.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 25c | 108.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 20c | 107$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 60c | 99.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 95.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 94.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 86.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…b485backed Yes | 31c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…b9c7backed Yes | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked No | 73c | 76.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 35c | 73.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 72.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 67c | 69.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 19c | 63.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 60.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 57.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 55.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 53.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 39c | 49.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 27c | 48.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 64c | 48.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 72c | 46.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2738…95a0backed Yes | 73c | 42.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 60c | 42.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 39.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed Yes | 64c | 37.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 32c | 37.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 74c | 37.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 75c | 29.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 60c | 28.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 39c | 26.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 67c | 19.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…490cbacked Yes | 80c | 18.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 69c | 14.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.