Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0abe6aa9f9b1ee0ccd7c7e4590b7c46abbcfcab025ed923552ee0fa461855db5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb63…7fb5backed Yes | 74c | 4,300$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 28c | 4,236$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.28 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 709.78$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.87 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457a…44debacked Yes | 67c | 664.06$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.79 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 14c | 548.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 109 | 20.2%22 W · 87 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 26c | 403.04$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 49c | 398.92$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.58 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 34c | 335.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 69c | 300.95$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 21c | 291.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.28 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 31c | 263.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…d9e7backed Yes | 74c | 239.84$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 26c | 225.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 31c | 201.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 26c | 131.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 27c | 114.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Yes | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 28c | 105.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 306 | 46.7%143 W · 163 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 30c | 104$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 124 | 37.9%47 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 30c | 89.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 273 | 52.7%144 W · 129 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…229abacked No | 35c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 20c | 77.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 71c | 77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 26c | 74.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked No | 15c | 71.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Yes | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 17c | 64.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd45c…bb50backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked No | 24c | 49.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed No | 28c | 46.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Yes | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed No | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 71c | 42.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed No | 26c | 41.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 52c | 41.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 63c | 39.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 130 | 36.9%48 W · 82 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 292 | 44.9%131 W · 161 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 69c | 18.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…76bfbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 79c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -11.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will Aarhus GF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold end in a draw?No won
- Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.