Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0adba653f6af846d3cb0f6e2e6eca36474390d48e45d92fa57582a64925494ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 76c | 783.35$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.63 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 778.73$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 10c | 545.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.79 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 20c | 380.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 327$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 39c | 320.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 309$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 78c | 273.97$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 36c | 183.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.21 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 60c | 169.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 157.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 20c | 156.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 19c | 152.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…a4eebacked Yes | 19c | 151.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 150.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 15c | 146.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 138.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 46c | 127.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 113.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 48c | 109.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 60c | 107.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 105.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…785ebacked Yes | 18c | 101.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 15c | 95.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 27c | 94.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 89.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…4b67backed Yes | 15c | 89.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 89.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 70c | 86.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 68c | 79.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 27c | 78.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 52c | 69.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 67.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 38c | 65.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…27a9backed Yes | 15c | 65.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 58.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 67c | 56.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 32c | 50.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 77c | 50.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…bfe7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 23c | 46.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 43.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed No | 66c | 40.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes | 72c | 40.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e1…1b93backed Yes | 43c | 34.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 67c | 31.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 72c | 26.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 58c | 24.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…d480backed Yes | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 69c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…72babacked Yes | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…c010backed Yes | 64c | 17.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.