Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3eecd3966d610fd47d264362a653e78eab74f5494e3bfc741e10ef7cc76511f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,231$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.89 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 3c | 2,256$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,192$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 988.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 978.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 10c | 929.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 929.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5216…6c4bbacked Yes | 5c | 898.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 724.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 4c | 496.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 479.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 5c | 470.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 395.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 10c | 375.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 9c | 369.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 7c | 362.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 4c | 323.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 263.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 11c | 256.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…d6b9backed Yes | 5c | 202.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 10c | 189.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 156.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 8c | 145.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 12c | 138.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 17c | 137.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 10c | 129.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 12c | 108.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 91.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…697cbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.