Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeec5d4a4ceb2704ff8df887c95760bdc29fd42a8da8a878dc057f34c50e637d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 15c | 1,308$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.94 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 2c | 829.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 326.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 223.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 47c | 195.2$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 39c | 183.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 118.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 108.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 39c | 98.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 23c | 83.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 58c | 74.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 64.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 58.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 31c | 55.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 55.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 53c | 53.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…bfe7backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 48.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 27c | 47.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a2…e17dbacked No | 65c | 44.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 48c | 39.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 29c | 39.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 49c | 38.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 62c | 35.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 32.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…88f9backed Yes | 50c | 32.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 48c | 29.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 51c | 29.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 29.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 67c | 29.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 56c | 25.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 24.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 21.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…0e39backed No | 79c | 21.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 67c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 69c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 67c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.