Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51cb0f3487f8b84f28aebb344f24927bde4389927144fcbd61dee6ea5a1bd818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 72c | 1,339$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.59 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed Yes | 1c | 927.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 69c | 655.64$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 52c | 603.93$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.28 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 51c | 564.41$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.95 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 36c | 553.58$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.59 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 553.16$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 59c | 479.44$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.14 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 32c | 417.45$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.5 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 326.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 37c | 281.09$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 38c | 262.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 23c | 259.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.19 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 67c | 239.53$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.55 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 37c | 229.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 36c | 208.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 50c | 199.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 39c | 187.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 69c | 168.74$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 161.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 63c | 153.48$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 24c | 152.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 31c | 147.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 73c | 142.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 18c | 127.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…d74cbacked No | 40c | 119.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 119.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 109.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 105.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 48c | 98.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 36c | 96.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 96.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 39c | 92.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 88.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 77c | 85.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes | 78c | 78.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 41c | 73.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 39c | 72.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…0018backed No | 19c | 70.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 65c | 70.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 56c | 70.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 45c | 69.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 72c | 68.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 66.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 41c | 60.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 26c | 51.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…bfe7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986d…9b05backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 33c | 49.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 77c | 48.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 58c | 47.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 46.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 46.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 32c | 46.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 44.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…27a9backed Yes | 29c | 42.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 39.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 48c | 39.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 72c | 39.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 34.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 32.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 31c | 32.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 77c | 31.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 80c | 31.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 61c | 30.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 80c | 29.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 40c | 29.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 49c | 29.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…d480backed Yes | 51c | 28.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 58c | 27.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 63c | 27.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 62c | 27.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 71c | 27.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…d45fbacked Yes | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 59c | 25.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed No | 47c | 25.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 80c | 23.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed Yes | 68c | 22.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 46c | 21.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 71c | 20.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 56c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…c010backed Yes | 76c | 19.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 71c | 19.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.