MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b006124ec9f7e6e81408c0c03994bbb653a73007efd695163a013262de78abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 55c | 221,818$121,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,833.37 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 45c | 90,000$40,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,500 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 45c | 75,896$34,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,153.34 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 45c | 24,096$10,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,843.2 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 56c | 20,000$11,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,700.35 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 45c | 19,011$8,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,554.95 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 13,805$5,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,973.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 9,028$4,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,019.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 3,896$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844e…4efdbacked Under | 51c | 3,529$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…a1d3backed Under | 45c | 2,939$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.63 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 1,946$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 1,543$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Under | 45c | 586.67$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 45c | 406.56$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.95 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 45c | 355.56$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 299$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 49c | 296.7$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Under | 45c | 261.42$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 235.9$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 45c | 230.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 45c | 160.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 56c | 144.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Under | 45c | 133.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…ea06backed Under | 45c | 116.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 106.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 55c | 99.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 87.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 85.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 48c | 83.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 69.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6593…445ebacked Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…6d72backed Under | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 59.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 45c | 49.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 46c | 47.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…cba9backed Under | 45c | 35.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 51c | 33.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 48c | 31.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 30.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Under | 56c | 29.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 46c | 29.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7584…d6e6backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 46c | 24.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 45c | 24.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.