MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c39f6d90fcc31636f66d12c74772ce6a592f6f58bf6e32de48e772d5335bb2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 5,870$2,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,330.97 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 4,287$2,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,572.54 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 1,921$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.55 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 504.29$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.36 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 25c | 434.19$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 251.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.22 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 239.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 239.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.1 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 176.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 156.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 156.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 152.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 142.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 125$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 117$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 91.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 90.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 181 | 53.6%97 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 23c | 72.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 269 | 62.1%167 W · 102 L | +44.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 71.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 63.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 47.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 47.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 38.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 38.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe717…0710backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 30.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 29.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 27.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 21.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.