South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b4983b1a68de6c81725edefd1b3e70b61df63204307dcfbb88f0d7ffdcbe9f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 42c | 11,910$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.19 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 7,218$4,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,016.8 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 4,310$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.61 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 1,251$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.53 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 26c | 1,193$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.83 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 72c | 682.43$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.08 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 47c | 633.04$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.03 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 514.74$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.19 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 51c | 487.48$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.88 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f4…2df9backed Under | 79c | 428.99$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 366.35$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.97 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 52c | 294$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 79c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 43c | 117.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 51c | 105.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Under | 46c | 100.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…e7c3backed Under | 59c | 84.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…517cbacked Under | 51c | 84.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 49c | 71.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 62c | 69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 31c | 65.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 39.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 70c | 32.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 71c | 19.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 78c | 19.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 103 | 65%67 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.