Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b6129be1fb831f9626f384f32be73b1ed2dce3026a20e866230a5f511ba6654
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 43c | 7,000$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,990 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 5,764$3,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,282.09 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 50c | 2,523$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.67 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 44c | 704.55$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.55 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 56c | 534.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 43c | 345$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.65 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Over | 44c | 337.23$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.85 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…5924backed Under | 7c | 315.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 42c | 301.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.81 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 58c | 204$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 58c | 96.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 60c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 62c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Over | 46c | 44.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 35.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…9320backed Under | 57c | 35.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…6ba7backed Under | 58c | 23.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 58c | 18.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.