Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad076cecd32a156f60c8de67082c2f012a07e3bd2bbf522c3550704269ae839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 71c | 17,411$12,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,285.42 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 8,934$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,255.88 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 28c | 2,608$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.99 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 2,239$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.34 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 29c | 1,741$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.65 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 30c | 1,239$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.88 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04c8…8538backed Under | 80c | 375$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 78c | 139$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 37c | 132.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 29c | 110.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Under | 74c | 108.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Over | 35c | 68.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Under | 66c | 59.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Over | 45c | 59.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…5010backed Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Under | 72c | 20.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.