Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C or higher on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b84dee0211ac3efb3ba4220626d211b93c3eae40164ab9ceb600cbbb9049946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 54c | 1,016$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.98 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 393.89$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.7 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 32c | 296.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 76c | 271.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 262$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.08 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 217.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.58 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 48c | 197.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 42c | 195.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 45c | 191.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 551 | 25.2%139 W · 412 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 55c | 181.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 139.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 120.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 45c | 119$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 73c | 116.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 45c | 106.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 104$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 91.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 19c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 83.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 80.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 57c | 78.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 80c | 78.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 22c | 76.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 39c | 71.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 56c | 71.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 48c | 67.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 60.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…1706backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 74c | 53.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…4f61backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 24c | 48.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 40c | 45.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 43.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 39.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 31c | 38.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…b493backed No | 40c | 35.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 62c | 32.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 31.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 49c | 30.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…0f48backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed Yes | 70c | 25.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 46c | 24.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 63c | 23.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 50c | 20.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 180 | 76.1%137 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 60c | 19.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 59c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C or higher on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.