Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho Vandals vs. Montana State Bobcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bbde3281abf85df44df65c922f6083ad6045ff254e2e8fb8809e10f6a7858d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana State Bobcatsof Idaho Vandals, Montana State Bobcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 57c | 18,000$10,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,739.99 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Idaho Vandals | 43c | 5,573$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,396.6 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Idaho Vandals | 43c | 5,063$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.99 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Idaho Vandals | 43c | 4,651$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Idaho Vandals | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 57c | 1,975$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.48 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Idaho Vandals | 46c | 1,539$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.72 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Idaho Vandals | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 56c | 500.16$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.07 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Idaho Vandals | 43c | 332.68$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Idaho Vandals | 34c | 302$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Montana State Bobcats | 58c | 292.25$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 54c | 269.75$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Montana State Bobcats | 55c | 260$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Idaho Vandals | 43c | 258$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 57c | 256.74$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Montana State Bobcats | 59c | 250$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Idaho Vandals | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Idaho Vandals | 43c | 230.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Idaho Vandals | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Montana State Bobcats | 73c | 202.24$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Montana State Bobcats | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…4ecebacked Idaho Vandals | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Idaho Vandals | 11c | 142.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Montana State Bobcats | 70c | 125.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…da93backed Idaho Vandals | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked Idaho Vandals | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Idaho Vandals | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa25d…2227backed Montana State Bobcats | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Idaho Vandals | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Idaho Vandals | 45c | 88.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Idaho Vandals | 43c | 83.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Idaho Vandals | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Idaho Vandals | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Idaho Vandals | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 46.1%100 W · 117 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Idaho Vandals | 44c | 35.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668c…fc62backed Idaho Vandals | 44c | 32.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Idaho Vandals | 43c | 31.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Idaho Vandals | 44c | 25.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Montana State Bobcats | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana State Bobcatsthis page
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana State Bobcats: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Montana State Bobcats (-2.5)Montana State Bobcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.