MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bc1bc2024fa8a08e7bb26cc1430478fd4d546cdaad64fb0348503313225f416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Atlanta Braves | 11c | 2,346$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.32 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 15c | 2,186$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 1,303$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.83 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Atlanta Braves | 18c | 1,295$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.86 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 1,113$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.76 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 1,000$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.72 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 643.1$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.74 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…882dbacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 113.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Atlanta Braves | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Miami Marlins | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…e019backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 93.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 74.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Miami Marlins | 78c | 71.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 62.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 32.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc9…2b7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 25.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.