Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bc4aa394aca466f47e1bd015ef130e25d496e8aa0f7773ff212779038b0f52e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 427.13$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 5c | 407.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 75c | 370.07$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 363.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.98 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 362.99$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.13 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 48c | 348.65$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 47c | 253.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.06 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 55c | 234.85$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 43c | 230.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 215.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes | 50c | 198.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 58c | 169.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 164.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 159.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…0426backed No | 52c | 134.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 26c | 125.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 122.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…0cc9backed Yes | 23c | 117.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 117.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 114.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 110.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 103.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 100.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 43c | 98.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 21c | 94.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 92.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 46c | 86.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 27c | 84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 18c | 76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 71.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 29c | 65.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 63c | 63.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 65c | 62.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 55.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 54.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 52.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…740dbacked Yes | 26c | 45.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 69c | 43.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 69c | 34.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 31.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 70c | 30.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 27.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 25.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 49c | 25.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…0e61backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 74c | 22.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 79c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.