Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbaaa988158e4fc524e98bbd5043e2ba41fe873a1e899c81c865298863f7fb8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 32c | 980.64$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.5 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 396.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 34c | 291.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 277.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 247.83$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 214$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 186.14$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 6c | 178.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 6c | 171.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 142$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 140.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 130.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 67c | 98.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 94.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 86.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 76.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 75.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 72.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 23c | 72.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 31c | 66.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 64.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 64.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 39c | 62.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 61.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 35c | 50.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 68c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 45.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 68c | 41.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 65c | 33.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 30.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…1884backed No | 73c | 26.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 62c | 25.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 42c | 25.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 76c | 24.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 23.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 58c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 68c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.