Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bef6f0e3ac81c0a512ca3faa3724b7d6caaaec9bf8b113fcebb50953ea9776c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 1,328$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 633.93$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 26c | 524$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 42c | 337.76$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.03 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 165.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 32c | 162.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 69c | 152$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 127$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 120.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 119.8$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 70c | 118.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 115$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 104.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 103.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…cb37backed Yes | 42c | 95.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 34c | 91.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 90.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 85.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 31c | 81.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 81.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 76.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 58.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 34c | 54.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 53.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 42.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 40.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 34.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 32.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 64c | 25.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 74c | 24.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 65c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…1b08backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.