Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f2ff1481c9af822ab9ca8928b4f0780428dfc54f40e1cada8fd7009e2bfc083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 579.6$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 74c | 524.34$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 431.06$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 41c | 295.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.81 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 228.42$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 187.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 186.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.21 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 178.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 33c | 148.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 32c | 143.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 130.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…ac41backed No | 40c | 123.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 65c | 121$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 29c | 115$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 44c | 102.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 17c | 99.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 91.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 90.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 85.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 83.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 81.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 77.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 73.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 73c | 68.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 54c | 61.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 75c | 55.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…cb37backed Yes | 45c | 44.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 28c | 41.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 40.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 38c | 39.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 44c | 36.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 30c | 35.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 76c | 33.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 71c | 30.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 75c | 25.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 59c | 24.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 23.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 75c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 72c | 18.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 73c | 17.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 74c | 17.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 75c | 13.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.