Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bff5ac3219dcbdb90223f92a938bf71a0cf69eded6b6ecb74d98efcc03641cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8828…ffd7backed Yes | 0c | 24,570$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 2,177$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 936.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 781.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 9c | 424$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 9c | 381.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 322.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 7c | 311.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 284.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 9c | 257.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 64c | 205.71$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 202.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 179$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f29dbacked Yes | 47c | 169.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 159.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 36c | 147.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 146.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…7c4bbacked Yes | 39c | 136.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 134.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 123.83$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 61c | 123.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 15c | 103.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55b…47afbacked Yes | 14c | 91.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 70c | 90.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 61c | 83.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 76c | 78.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47d…e6a4backed Yes | 47c | 78.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…dd88backed Yes | 15c | 75.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 20c | 73.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 56c | 73.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 34c | 66.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 28c | 63.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 18c | 60.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 41c | 60.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 72c | 58.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…bc3abacked Yes | 18c | 57.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 54.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…44d8backed Yes | 19c | 53.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 51.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 29c | 50.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 47c | 48.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 42c | 47.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 32c | 47.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 45.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 63c | 44.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3052…af2cbacked Yes | 50c | 41.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…0049backed Yes | 39c | 38.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 53c | 37.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 56c | 35.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 34.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 63c | 30.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…9120backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 52c | 28.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 56c | 26.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…c359backed No | 70c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 72c | 24.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 21.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 73c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 17.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…21f6backed No | 70c | 14.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 77c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.