Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ac175f13f381844a268bda902063abb344a3127dd517917c40d6a92d986ea06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Yes | 1c | 1,042$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 68c | 947.67$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.2 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 70c | 665.87$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.09 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 13c | 610.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 24c | 499.09$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 498.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.95 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 411.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…4558backed Yes | 4c | 361$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 31c | 355.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 15c | 324.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 28c | 300.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 286.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 264.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 10c | 264.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 55c | 257.96$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 38c | 230.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 62c | 216.41$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 49c | 209.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 56c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 50c | 174.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 166.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 141.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 68c | 132.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 64c | 131$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes | 53c | 130.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 126.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 75c | 124.65$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 29c | 123.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 44c | 122.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 107.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8321…c826backed Yes | 61c | 105.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 24c | 105.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 103.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…6a1dbacked Yes | 22c | 99.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 51c | 97.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 93.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 88.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 42c | 86.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 77.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 36c | 75.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 74.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 24c | 70.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 70.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bb…c717backed Yes | 31c | 65.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 78c | 64.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 22c | 57.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 53.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 51.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…6340backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 40c | 46.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…7864backed Yes | 23c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…74edbacked Yes | 33c | 44.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…f987backed Yes | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…0b30backed Yes | 50c | 39.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 79c | 39.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 53c | 39.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 39.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…38edbacked Yes | 51c | 38.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…4ea7backed Yes | 51c | 38.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…fac1backed No | 80c | 35.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked No | 79c | 30.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…a255backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 50c | 29.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…1796backed Yes | 39c | 27.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 47c | 27.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 45c | 26.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…851dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…63d2backed Yes | 45c | 22.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…f8d0backed Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 77c | 20.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 66c | 15.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…3668backed No | 77c | 13.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.