Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d556b9d6b5b2f8d972e469f202ecca9797aba0a229e4c006839dc7dace6d4f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 5,392$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,874$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 1c | 1,049$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,019$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…5dbdbacked Yes | 6c | 693.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 544.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 72c | 461.84$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 378.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 16c | 302.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Yes | 8c | 293.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 32c | 281.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 29c | 278.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 246.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 13c | 211.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 7c | 201.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 28c | 172.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 29c | 165.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 68c | 159.41$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed Yes | 30c | 119.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed Yes | 12c | 97.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 90.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 28c | 89.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…960abacked No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x195b…7916backed Yes | 25c | 63.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…19c6backed Yes | 24c | 63.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked Yes | 43c | 50.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1417…38afbacked No | 71c | 48.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 30c | 43.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 54c | 31.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 31.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes | 39c | 29.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 26.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 65c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.