Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9caae56c65078595273182113b97863a71268e8379b00d4f97ed9332faba2a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 2,526$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.89 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,397$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.49 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 1c | 1,214$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.34 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 1c | 1,076$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,008$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.92 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 923.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 896.75$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 883.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.28 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 540.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.55 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 77c | 532.29$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.98 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 11c | 389.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 10c | 343.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.83 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 39c | 286.69$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.74 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01bd…ef45backed Yes | 4c | 266.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.61 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 259.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 230.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 12c | 209.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.34 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 12c | 127.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 15c | 125$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed Yes | 63c | 124.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 16c | 103.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 13c | 98.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 36c | 76.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 66c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 44c | 74.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 25c | 74.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 60c | 70.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 43c | 68.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 61c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 64c | 60.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes | 34c | 52.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 51.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…1a25backed Yes | 34c | 43.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 39c | 42.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…741fbacked No | 72c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 59c | 40.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 47c | 36.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 47c | 33.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 47c | 33.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 41c | 29.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 56c | 24.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…19c6backed Yes | 70c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…06e7backed Yes | 48c | 21.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 62c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x861e…37aabacked Yes | 62c | 16.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.