Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x163c1cf727a35203e0b9fdaacdd8c757706393be78593f84afc4d570d03791dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafe5…f7aebacked Yes | 1c | 4,078$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…ffd7backed Yes | 1c | 1,240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 818.29$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.36 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 72c | 416.57$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 334 | 46.4%155 W · 179 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 9c | 399.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 30c | 314.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 434 | 37.8%164 W · 270 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 311.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 221.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 207.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 204.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 618 | 23.8%147 W · 471 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 36c | 204.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 175.29$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 12c | 159.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 13c | 139.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 36c | 138.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 336 | 35.1%118 W · 218 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 137.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 2,837 | 11.2%317 W · 2,520 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 136.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 131.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 67c | 120.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 28c | 117.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 116.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 21c | 107.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 69c | 104.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 32c | 93.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 42c | 93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 31c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 53c | 84.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 80.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 67c | 71.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 71c | 71.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…9c82backed No | 58c | 64.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 21c | 63.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 31c | 63.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 63.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…fb85backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa537…e569backed No | 74c | 59.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba5…ccc3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 64c | 46.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 74c | 44.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 30c | 44.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…19f3backed Yes | 30c | 42.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…3514backed Yes | 38c | 42.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 73c | 41.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…74edbacked Yes | 39c | 40.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…9050backed No | 71c | 39.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab48…30bebacked Yes | 46c | 39.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…b8e9backed Yes | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bb…c717backed Yes | 55c | 36.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 56c | 35.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…594fbacked Yes | 30c | 35.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb99f…ce4dbacked Yes | 30c | 35.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 67c | 34.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked No | 73c | 33.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 53c | 33.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…aaa8backed No | 71c | 32.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 44c | 32.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…0759backed No | 72c | 31.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2557…2525backed No | 71c | 29.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…1796backed Yes | 40c | 27.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8321…c826backed Yes | 53c | 24.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 60c | 22.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…471abacked No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…2b6fbacked No | 53c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 60c | 21.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…0506backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 72c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 74c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 73c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 64c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 390 | 61.5%240 W · 150 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 74c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.