Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c746f56a27553fc7d06e746aef22c445e5fd1282cc8d6c4887b037ec7f42e8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 2c | 1,270$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 758.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.79 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 700.52$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 18c | 550.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 258$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.78 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 61c | 246.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 230.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 180.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 47c | 147.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 75c | 143$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 141.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 133$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 121.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 109.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 50c | 90.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 89.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 87.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 85.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 84.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 79.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 72.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 58c | 71.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 70.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 70.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 62.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 25c | 57.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 51.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 50.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 49.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 48.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 44c | 44.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 56c | 42.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 46c | 42.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 32c | 39.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 36.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 42c | 35.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 38c | 35.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 58c | 35.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 64c | 34.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 34.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 31.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 28.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 38c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 56c | 24.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 67c | 24.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 59c | 23.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 21.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 21.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 54c | 20.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 66c | 19.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 65c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 17.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 77c | 13.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.