TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs BoomBoys (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BoomBoysof TEAM VISION, BoomBoys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$182,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$203,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,445 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked BoomBoys53c27,211$14,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,665.5860542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b1…6dfcbacked BoomBoys53c26,665$14,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,643.953148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed TEAM VISION45c16,211$7,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,291.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked TEAM VISION46c14,032$6,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,454.6336041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed BoomBoys55c13,074$7,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9387548%36 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked BoomBoys51c12,446$6,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,152.7135850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed TEAM VISION48c12,348$5,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,917.069736.1%35 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed BoomBoys48c12,052$5,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,257.5118844.7%84 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb132…6b5ebacked BoomBoys54c8,945$4,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,114.743053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed TEAM VISION45c8,889$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb29…947abacked TEAM VISION46c7,848$3,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,598.224953.1%26 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked TEAM VISION48c6,839$3,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.312148.8%59 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed TEAM VISION42c6,820$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,834.0571143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e91…391dbacked TEAM VISION47c5,810$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa21b…e4e4backed TEAM VISION47c5,173$2,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.333633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed TEAM VISION47c5,038$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.6217648.3%85 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked BoomBoys53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.9919847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed TEAM VISION47c4,706$2,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211.6511547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked BoomBoys53c4,006$2,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.9117444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed BoomBoys53c4,000$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,861.413953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee46…faa0backed TEAM VISION48c3,746$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a5…55d6backed BoomBoys55c3,065$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.282045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5b…9164backed TEAM VISION47c2,800$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6129…0807backed TEAM VISION42c2,660$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.193641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2316…9819backed BoomBoys55c2,563$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed BoomBoys53c2,264$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.015149%25 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89dc…c012backed TEAM VISION47c2,021$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9503441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked TEAM VISION43c1,953$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.9610040%40 W · 60 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb39b…9826backed TEAM VISION48c1,887$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.97825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked BoomBoys56c1,775$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.3311656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed BoomBoys55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b0…9178backed TEAM VISION47c1,460$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked TEAM VISION46c1,449$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.4216149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked BoomBoys51c1,172$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.7248539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2cd…3897backed BoomBoys55c1,095$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.071442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed TEAM VISION49c1,008$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.683754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4905…1683backed TEAM VISION50c1,007$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.34843.8%21 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f05…b18ebacked TEAM VISION49c1,002$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.353435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-33.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf796…de54backed TEAM VISION49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4906651.5%34 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa316…deb4backed TEAM VISION50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed BoomBoys52c999.98$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.992343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked BoomBoys53c916.26$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.6432548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x657a…d1f4backed TEAM VISION42c881.68$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe175…1be1backed BoomBoys55c868.85$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.981080%8 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+52.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed TEAM VISION51c865.23$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.355437%20 W · 34 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbe6c…a2c3backed BoomBoys56c839.3$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.771560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked TEAM VISION46c830.45$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.561,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed TEAM VISION53c817.52$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.3717852.8%94 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…f0fbbacked BoomBoys52c749.99$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.991855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked TEAM VISION49c716.7$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.0318745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaab…0456backed TEAM VISION48c708.23$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked TEAM VISION46c656$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.763548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed BoomBoys56c622.72$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.727440.5%30 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd25f…eab3backed TEAM VISION47c600$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28410840.7%44 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed TEAM VISION47c588.03$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.6512335.8%44 W · 79 L-13.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6033…8a83backed TEAM VISION45c555.56$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked TEAM VISION48c506.32$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.9721253.8%114 W · 98 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce3…7537backed TEAM VISION57c500.36$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.212653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked TEAM VISION44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22026846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb862…a00dbacked BoomBoys31c500$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+93.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed BoomBoys56c478.36$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.6343860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5822…8774backed TEAM VISION35c454.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.352334.8%8 W · 15 L-6.3wins-0.27per pick62cpaid-50.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6094…7bb8backed TEAM VISION46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked BoomBoys54c403.04$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.575352.8%28 W · 25 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7820…0b73backed BoomBoys56c386.95$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.958957.3%51 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec4…8bc9backed BoomBoys50c360$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c6…d2d6backed TEAM VISION45c350.1$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.18445.2%38 W · 46 L-9.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4141…cffcbacked BoomBoys53c339.62$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.621050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+50.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f90…4c92backed TEAM VISION46c316.83$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14514136.9%52 W · 89 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed BoomBoys55c311.58$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.7171342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked BoomBoys53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14121045.7%96 W · 114 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed TEAM VISION48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1446841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed BoomBoys54c299.2$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.6333445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed BoomBoys52c286.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.718425%21 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x821e…e11dbacked TEAM VISION48c278.1$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.49850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed TEAM VISION45c266.67$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12022260.4%134 W · 88 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a14…be99backed BoomBoys57c259.37$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.592650%13 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked TEAM VISION48c256$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.888248.8%40 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked BoomBoys56c256$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6412155.4%67 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+134.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a2…665cbacked TEAM VISION44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42cd…2359backed TEAM VISION44c225.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4363…6380backed TEAM VISION45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked TEAM VISION46c218$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.084247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed TEAM VISION46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008251.2%42 W · 40 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74bc…6754backed TEAM VISION47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003565.7%23 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7093…a798backed TEAM VISION47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5848…56a1backed TEAM VISION47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08a2…1abdbacked TEAM VISION43c209$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8714639.7%58 W · 88 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3d1…f540backed BoomBoys51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed BoomBoys54c199.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed BoomBoys49c199.98$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.995630.4%17 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9048…d351backed TEAM VISION51c196.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009640.6%39 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked TEAM VISION36c193.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0821328.2%60 W · 153 L-16.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f50…e12bbacked TEAM VISION51c185.42$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.561656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed BoomBoys55c180.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4526343%113 W · 150 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0109…7d9bbacked BoomBoys54c177.34$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.34650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed TEAM VISION46c174$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0423746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec6…db1ebacked TEAM VISION58c172.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010557.1%60 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…1ce7backed TEAM VISION45c170$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.59148.4%44 W · 47 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked TEAM VISION47c160$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510446.2%48 W · 56 L-11.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-23%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.