Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c8c0a12d70060a60a5e9be2bdfc819b315455268485f707fc888de5fd560176
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,355 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 16c | 1,202$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.67 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 1,020$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 837.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 702.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 24c | 551.37$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.05 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 23c | 299.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.42 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 29c | 273.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 232.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 14c | 192.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 155.27$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 132$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…7fb5backed Yes | 12c | 130.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 13c | 129.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.37 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 9c | 123.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 119.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 59c | 106.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 23c | 91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 17c | 86.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 74c | 82.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 47c | 81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 20c | 80.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 42c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 69.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 44c | 68.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…1250backed Yes | 43c | 68.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 67.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 48c | 60.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 51.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 29c | 50.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 53c | 47.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…fad0backed Yes | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 80c | 36.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed No | 79c | 36.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked No | 53c | 30.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 29.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 65c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 38c | 28.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 27.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 26.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 71c | 26.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 25.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…d684backed Yes | 61c | 21.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 19.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 19.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 17.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…26febacked No | 80c | 17.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…2580backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…5ba1backed No | 79c | 14.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 31°F or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.