Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c8761388ef10c9fc43c7235f404ccf6355038ec28ceaf16adfb11fdd04ca3d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,198 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 2c | 945$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…14cabacked Yes | 3c | 471.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 423.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 325.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 36c | 264.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 241.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 200.27$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…c972backed Yes | 34c | 199.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 25c | 180.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 7c | 145.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 132$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 20c | 130.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 127.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 118.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 70c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 66c | 88.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 80.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 77.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 24c | 72.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3173backed No | 64c | 71.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 69.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 69.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 20c | 68.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 32c | 67.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 25c | 63.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 56.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…90c3backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 66c | 53.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 46.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 46.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…044cbacked No | 73c | 45.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 24c | 43.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbc…b8a0backed Yes | 35c | 42.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked Yes | 25c | 40.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 70c | 36.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 32.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 80c | 31.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…ee48backed No | 72c | 27.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 36c | 27.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 72c | 23.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 55c | 22.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 70c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 31°F or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.