TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Mexican Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kecmanovicof Zverev, Kecmanovic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$329,070
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$334,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,070 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Zverev48c43,873$21,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,144.392,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kecmanovic19c40,857$7,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,966.1976140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kecmanovic50c35,990$18,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,923.867,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kecmanovic46c15,372$7,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,322.5811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Kecmanovic40c10,730$4,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,467.5476146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Zverev60c10,058$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00048851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Zverev52c9,646$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.981,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Kecmanovic48c9,582$4,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,946.7181349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Kecmanovic40c8,755$3,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,293.662,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Zverev79c5,917$4,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,668.7127063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Kecmanovic65c5,593$3,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.629855.1%54 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Zverev51c5,551$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,834.4765157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…fe8fbacked Zverev79c5,064$4,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.561353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kecmanovic47c4,725$2,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,488.022,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd5…d06bbacked Kecmanovic31c4,151$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,863.94723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xade0…e568backed Zverev49c4,083$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006344.4%28 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedb…25debacked Zverev79c3,900$3,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Zverev54c3,825$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.861,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Zverev54c3,680$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004560%27 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f35…95dabacked Kecmanovic44c3,549$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.2145343.9%199 W · 254 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kecmanovic44c3,379$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.248,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Zverev45c3,237$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.8468026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Zverev80c3,151$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520.7465558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Zverev56c2,875$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.091,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Zverev50c2,750$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37574743.6%326 W · 421 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Kecmanovic16c2,674$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,24611045.5%50 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kecmanovic19c2,415$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.551,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed Kecmanovic20c2,410$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.4910650%53 W · 53 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Kecmanovic21c2,218$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.2221338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Kecmanovic20c2,172$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.546,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Zverev53c2,096$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.7397046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Zverev51c2,000$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.4944163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Kecmanovic55c1,809$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.424146.3%19 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kecmanovic28c1,770$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.936,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Zverev60c1,675$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a21…e7f0backed Zverev36c1,667$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Zverev50c1,569$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.557755.8%43 W · 34 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Zverev59c1,376$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.415860.8%96 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Kecmanovic21c1,349$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.5531332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Kecmanovic54c1,295$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.75841.4%24 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe289…c31abacked Zverev67c1,273$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8506259.7%37 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Kecmanovic30c1,110$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77742743.8%187 W · 240 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Zverev41c1,068$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.954,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Kecmanovic18c1,000$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8201,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8713…4007backed Zverev80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004269%29 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Kecmanovic18c957.8$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.227836.3%101 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Zverev51c946$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.1699044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82d…c40dbacked Zverev49c922.55$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.812152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2755…fef0backed Zverev47c897.1$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42022634.5%78 W · 148 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Zverev60c893$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.827460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kecmanovic27c852.95$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.464,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb75e…5130backed Zverev55c820$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.55343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5f…6cecbacked Zverev59c762.15$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45227749.8%138 W · 139 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Zverev63c753.77$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.862,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Zverev67c742.32$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50037444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c53…3c12backed Kecmanovic40c729.57$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.141040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Zverev58c676.26$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39450364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23c…ae92backed Zverev73c650$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47517959.8%107 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e1e…b911backed Zverev80c643.91$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.135354.7%29 W · 24 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Zverev65c622.83$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.3523152.4%121 W · 110 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Zverev57c620.68$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.8318551.4%95 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kecmanovic19c610.2$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.41,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Kecmanovic24c574.11$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.3225957.5%149 W · 110 L+18.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Zverev80c526.31$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.0542046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Kecmanovic43c524.53$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.5327935.8%100 W · 179 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53fa…1a66backed Zverev80c506.25$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4053275%24 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Kecmanovic64c504.04$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4547057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Kecmanovic18c500$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4104,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Zverev54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27093055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Zverev51c492$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8369249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kecmanovic18c473.64$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.391,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Kecmanovic43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1240141.9%168 W · 233 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Zverev70c459.59$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3229567.4%64 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Kecmanovic19c424.24$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.931,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Kecmanovic52c405.77$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.7763247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x133b…20a3backed Kecmanovic51c400$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1952263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+45.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Kecmanovic44c400$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.236,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Zverev52c391.91$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8629637.5%111 W · 185 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cf4…ed22backed Kecmanovic15c388.13$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.9118447.3%87 W · 97 L+16.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Zverev78c384.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018659.7%111 W · 75 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89fd…da5dbacked Zverev54c382.63$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.948845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Zverev54c371.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe4a…9373backed Zverev80c367.68$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.1412974.4%96 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd33f…159cbacked Zverev57c354.28$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.554551.1%23 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Kecmanovic18c346.27$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.9440744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x417e…15e5backed Zverev71c333.2$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.577462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb315…d6c9backed Zverev53c318.87$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16915324.8%38 W · 115 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Kecmanovic18c317.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.751,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Kecmanovic47c317.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.834,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Zverev65c304.67$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.141,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Kecmanovic50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15041955.8%234 W · 185 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Kecmanovic21c300$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23736349.9%181 W · 182 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Zverev79c300$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23746551.2%238 W · 227 L-23.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Kecmanovic19c263.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.161,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Kecmanovic18c261$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.0295140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95dc…6b74backed Zverev80c250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Kecmanovic19c247.56$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.5386835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Kecmanovic18c246.11$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.8147552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Kecmanovic47c234.21$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3110348.5%50 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Zverev42c230.97$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.212,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.