Movies · resolved market
Will "The End of Oak Street" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cecc8ccca06f2f3daeffe067cc774e9f3c1a66ab5b190ca64a34dd5521f7050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9afe…062abacked Yes | 58c | 1,256$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 41c | 1,014$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.84 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | +21.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 6c | 584$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 555.37$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 42c | 478.81$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.1 | 131 | 23.7%31 W · 100 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 10c | 391.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 43c | 239.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 148 | 30.4%45 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 27c | 235$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 65c | 224.78$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 29c | 184.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 14c | 181$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 50c | 180.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 242 | 39.7%96 W · 146 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…c349backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 164$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 147.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 269 | 6.3%17 W · 252 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 135$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…dde4backed No | 54c | 37.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…1d6bbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 27.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 25.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed Yes | 59c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 56c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb47…5d20backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a87…4ee0backed Yes | 57c | 19.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The End of Oak Street" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?this page
- Will "The End of Oak Street" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.