IPO · resolved market
Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $8B and $9.5B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d096d0ebb91b420bf4553e002cba62374f8202814ca55b975fcc9e4b808524f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 69c | 1,128$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.44 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 18c | 496.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 28c | 206.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 140.12$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 79c | 103.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a4…7c91backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 89.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 64.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 49.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 71c | 26.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 66c | 23.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $8B and $9.5B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $6.5B and $8B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $9.5B and $11B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be less than $6.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.