South American Leagues · resolved market
CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d17bab48b7a0c9498883d8ead4a78b7b3aee17c100e3a382f8818c7a6f2deaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 62c | 4,517$2,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.91 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 37c | 3,914$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.85 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ba59backed Under | 5c | 1,491$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 1,096$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.25 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,036$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.05 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 70c | 717.68$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.48 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 470.02$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.09 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 49c | 393.91$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.58 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 22c | 308.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 4c | 306.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 13c | 300$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 62c | 142$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…93febacked Over | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 33c | 71.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 43c | 67.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b378backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 47c | 38.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 38c | 30.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 67c | 24.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…8339backed Under | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 77c | 19.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 73c | 15.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5this page
- CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CF América (-1.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: CF América (-2.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5)CF América won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.