Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Runa Team vs Amaru Gaming (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d2361285f2b43d12cafc7920c2eef6a8a1481a784076b33476e515d16193c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Runa Teamof Runa Team, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Amaru Gaming | 19c | 1,531$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.65 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Amaru Gaming | 16c | 1,314$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.3 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4e9ebacked Runa Team | 79c | 991.6$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Amaru Gaming | 12c | 953.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Amaru Gaming | 24c | 583.6$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…3487backed Runa Team | 78c | 577.6$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Amaru Gaming | 18c | 548$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…bab9backed Runa Team | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Runa Team | 79c | 499.05$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Amaru Gaming | 21c | 494.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…795fbacked Runa Team | 78c | 483.04$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Amaru Gaming | 7c | 281.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…37a5backed Amaru Gaming | 14c | 252.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Amaru Gaming | 22c | 242.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Amaru Gaming | 21c | 239.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Runa Team | 74c | 197.78$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Amaru Gaming | 26c | 162$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed Runa Team | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Amaru Gaming | 22c | 124$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Runa Team | 77c | 110.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Amaru Gaming | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Amaru Gaming | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Amaru Gaming | 23c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…c08bbacked Amaru Gaming | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Runa Team | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +65%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Amaru Gaming | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed Amaru Gaming | 22c | 51.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Amaru Gaming | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Runa Team | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Runa Team | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…1f6ebacked Amaru Gaming | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Runa Team | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Runa Team | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Runa Team | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…89b0backed Runa Team | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…41a3backed Runa Team | 79c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Runa Team | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Runa Team | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +56%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…d5a3backed Runa Team | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Runa Team | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Runa Team | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Runa Team | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Runa Team | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Runa Team vs Amaru Gaming (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Runa Team vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 WinnerRuna Team won
- Dota 2: Runa Team vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 WinnerRuna Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.