Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Sonego
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d2f77e7593f2eb630297e38980820961924c2ed520afb1e72d2a2cb2971ad43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonegoof Fery, Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fery | 35c | 3,896$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.58 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Sonego | 61c | 2,441$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.44 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Sonego | 55c | 2,277$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.87 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Fery | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Fery | 38c | 450.04$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.02 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Fery | 40c | 368.62$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.45 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Fery | 47c | 356.1$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.37 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Sonego | 58c | 296.97$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.73 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sonego | 60c | 294.18$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.24 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Sonego | 60c | 161.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…ae19backed Sonego | 56c | 143.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Fery | 44c | 133.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Fery | 42c | 127.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Fery | 44c | 91.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sonego | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Fery | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Fery | 45c | 65.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fery | 26c | 62.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Sonego | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Sonego | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Sonego | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Sonego | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…ca98backed Sonego | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…8570backed Sonego | 59c | 33.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Sonego | 60c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…bb41backed Sonego | 60c | 33.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…7b1fbacked Sonego | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…07aabacked Sonego | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 167 | 62.9%105 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Sonego | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Sonego | 56c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…05f5backed Sonego | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.