TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,812

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,748 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers70c3,324$2,337 inWon+$986.964,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked San Francisco Giants30c1,332$395 inLost-$395.212,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed San Francisco Giants30c999.54$298 inLost-$298.251,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants30c570.56$170 inLost-$170.138,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed San Francisco Giants30c509.98$150 inLost-$150.441,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Milwaukee Brewers70c312.81$219 inWon+$93.8432251.6%166 W · 156 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers69c244.04$168 inWon+$75.9911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked San Francisco Giants29c168.83$49 inLost-$48.966726.9%18 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers72c104$75 inWon+$29.023,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed San Francisco Giants28c100$28 inLost-$2868942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fee…3d67backed San Francisco Giants31c95.29$30 inLost-$29.545947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Francisco Giants31c85$26 inLost-$26.3556440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Milwaukee Brewers70c71.41$50 inWon+$21.4214057.9%81 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants30c50$15 inLost-$151,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Milwaukee Brewers70c42.86$30 inWon+$12.8610066%66 W · 34 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants32c34.4$11 inLost-$11.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.