Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d56144e7dc5042fb4b69051b65fa2711c5dcfe92d77f4df6179b54b910f6217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,210 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 309$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 28c | 299.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf670…3cb8backed No | 70c | 209.33$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 209.3$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 199.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 39c | 190.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…d684backed Yes | 35c | 172.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 61c | 159.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 143.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 30c | 131.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 69c | 120.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 117.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…3192backed Yes | 30c | 116.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 112.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 106.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 105.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 104.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 102.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 25c | 97.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 31c | 94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 87.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 53c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 48c | 78.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 38c | 69.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 66.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 64.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 47c | 64.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 61.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 57.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 55.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 65c | 53.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 48.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 41c | 48.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 27c | 46.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 58c | 45.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 41.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 74c | 41.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…513dbacked No | 72c | 40.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ec…2bc8backed Yes | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 52c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 52c | 39.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 30c | 38.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…753dbacked Yes | 38c | 36.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf8…0e86backed Yes | 43c | 34.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde8…99bdbacked No | 67c | 32.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked No | 64c | 31.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 55c | 31.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 30.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 50c | 30.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 72c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…a955backed Yes | 42c | 25.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 25.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…7712backed No | 63c | 24.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 58c | 23.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca23…6080backed No | 71c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed Yes | 56c | 20.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 56c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 72c | 19.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 68°F or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.