Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae8a531881f749dda12b0483d50320fc20d1542e49bf2a46c6e3e5fc13adc81e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,839 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.67 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 968.19$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 874.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 406.77$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 69c | 289.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 19c | 262.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.93 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 72c | 240.14$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…d684backed Yes | 38c | 237.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 77c | 213.48$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.95 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 65c | 207.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 202.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 14c | 187.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.01 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 31c | 149.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 149.79$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 136.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 72c | 130$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 61c | 124.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 121.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 70c | 104.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 103.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 101.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 100.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 12c | 99.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 98.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 78c | 96.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 32c | 95.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 29c | 90.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 36c | 89.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 70.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 69.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 67.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 16c | 65.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 64.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 31c | 63.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 72c | 63.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 73c | 63.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 24c | 61.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 30c | 56.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 62c | 56.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 41c | 53.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed Yes | 28c | 49.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 29c | 45.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 43.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 38c | 43.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6822…12b1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 29c | 39.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 72c | 39.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed No | 74c | 38.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 37.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…753dbacked Yes | 29c | 36.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 75c | 35.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 34.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 33.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 51c | 33.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 37c | 32.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 64c | 31.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 76c | 30.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed No | 80c | 30.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 29.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 34c | 29.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes | 41c | 29.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked No | 70c | 28.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 70c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 74c | 28.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 59c | 25.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 24.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 72c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 44c | 22.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 78c | 21.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…2fc5backed No | 70c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 78c | 20.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 73c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 71c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…8d27backed No | 78c | 19.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…71a2backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 68°F or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.