Chess · resolved market
Will Magnus Carlsen score the most points at the Freestyle Chess Paris Grand Slam Round Robin?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d76fd9b169b3cd2296d720622c79a0346a98ccff5642f590991adc599c37538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x069b…f8b8backed No | 49c | 42,319$20,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,736.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfafd…51a2backed Yes | 51c | 42,319$21,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,736.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…9917backed No | 7c | 7,648$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 0c | 6,148$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked No | 2c | 1,960$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 1c | 1,117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed No | 50c | 1,010$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 50c | 602.34$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.36 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 48c | 500.01$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 48c | 410.44$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 261.51$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13c2…0403backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 196$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…28b0backed Yes | 59c | 107.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…3e79backed Yes | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 73.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 50c | 50.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d9bfbacked Yes | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 36c | 44.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd6…74e1backed Yes | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 52c | 28.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…685fbacked Yes | 53c | 28.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8e…2377backed Yes | 52c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a08…d192backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Magnus Carlsen score the most points at the Freestyle Chess Paris Grand Slam Round Robin?this page
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi score the most points at the Freestyle Chess Paris Grand Slam Round Robin?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave score the most points at the Freestyle Chess Paris Grand Slam Round Robin?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov score the most points at the Freestyle Chess Paris Grand Slam Round Robin?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.