Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d7bb4b9caac2191e12553a244448e867eacfbcc4b83b351e705dc5fa0ed6d8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 0c | 6,188$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 2,173$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.8 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 36c | 894$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.84 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 830.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 516.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 415.67$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 375.06$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 256.63$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 250.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 221$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 16c | 214$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 175.53$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 169.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 162$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 145.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 36c | 138.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 75c | 132.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 124.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 123.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 33c | 111.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 16c | 93.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 91.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 23c | 86.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 68c | 53.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…9a08backed No | 68c | 52.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 49.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 67c | 44.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 30c | 43.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…4eaebacked Yes | 31c | 43.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 35c | 38.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…201dbacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 33.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…7e92backed Yes | 35c | 29.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 70c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.