CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: BIG vs. PaiN
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d8aa3876078e07c485e684fcaf9d926561a1578958d4030cfaba1040f49ca9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PaiNof BIG, PaiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked BIG | 43c | 11,955$5,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,140.65 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed PaiN | 49c | 7,962$3,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,060.74 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked PaiN | 57c | 7,210$4,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100.45 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked BIG | 62c | 6,311$3,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,938.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed BIG | 42c | 3,110$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.99 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked PaiN | 60c | 3,082$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.22 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed PaiN | 56c | 2,087$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.43 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed PaiN | 36c | 1,830$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.73 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked PaiN | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked PaiN | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed PaiN | 58c | 999.98$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed PaiN | 57c | 898.42$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.32 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked BIG | 72c | 842.38$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.51 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed BIG | 41c | 645.68$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.73 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked BIG | 42c | 623.89$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.27 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed PaiN | 54c | 363.22$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.08 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed PaiN | 59c | 342.37$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.37 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked PaiN | 72c | 266.39$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked BIG | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed BIG | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 524 | 56.3%295 W · 229 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed PaiN | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed BIG | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed PaiN | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked BIG | 71c | 147.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed PaiN | 56c | 133.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed PaiN | 45c | 130.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked BIG | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked BIG | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked PaiN | 58c | 84.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed BIG | 23c | 84.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed BIG | 54c | 80.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed PaiN | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed BIG | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked BIG | 25c | 53.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…9191backed PaiN | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked PaiN | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed BIG | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked PaiN | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked BIG | 54c | 36.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed PaiN | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked PaiN | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb562…f8c3backed BIG | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed BIG | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.