Champions League · resolved market
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d95463d97817f573934cace344095bf83a507769424df152a608d067bac6ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 15c | 5,532$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.43 | 600 | 41.8%251 W · 349 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…b002backed Under | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 15c | 2,889$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.89 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 15c | 2,400$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 1,809$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.51 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 15c | 1,654$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.1 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 14c | 1,111$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.54 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d94…3bfbbacked Under | 16c | 625.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 12c | 581.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 15c | 357.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 14c | 290.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 16c | 251.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 611 | 48.3%295 W · 316 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 16c | 174.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Under | 15c | 167.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 13c | 149.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Under | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 526 | 46.8%246 W · 280 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…3ebfbacked Under | 16c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 15c | 83.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.