NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dd881093db67f8b9b85e03503efceedc54729531c3caf29a4451cb05613da81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 76ersof Magic, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Magic | 50c | 25,570$12,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,785.23 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked 76ers | 50c | 19,594$9,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,797 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed 76ers | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed 76ers | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.99 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Magic | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Magic | 49c | 3,786$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.76 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Magic | 48c | 2,224$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.52 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Magic | 48c | 1,599$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.44 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Magic | 48c | 1,475$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.84 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 49c | 771$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Magic | 49c | 595.92$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 48c | 438.8$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Magic | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Magic | 49c | 138.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed 76ers | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 81 | 67.9%55 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed 76ers | 53c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…a394backed Magic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed 76ers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)this page
- Magic vs. 76ers76ers won
- Magic vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: 76ers (-1.5)76ers won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)76ers won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)76ers won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)76ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.